This market certainly seemed to have a lot of variation in the quality of feeder steers being sold. Those labeled Fancy by the market reporter sold for an average $4.78 per cwt higher. Number 8860726. Feeders labeled Fleshy by the market reporter sold for an average of $10.86 per cwt lower. He put his feed and energy in wintering the cow herd, developing his replacement heifers and spring-calving the next calf crop. USDA Agricultural Marketing Service labels some of the feeder cattle batches being sold as Fleshy, Fancy or Unweaned. Figure 4 presents my mid-February 2020 suggested planning prices through fall weaning 2020. Dressed prices that started at $162 moved to $167 yesterday. February’s business meeting. Two things stand out in this Live Cattle chart. Maybe fall calving would generate a better finishing date? Five-hundred-fifty-pound steer calves in fall 2020 are projected $7 higher than in fall 2019. All rights reserved. For example, as this was being written, marketing steers off grass in September this year should be more favorable than marketing steers off grass in September last year. Figure 2 presents the mid-February 2020 price trend for Feeder Cattle futures prices. Conversion Live Cattle Price Price; 1 Pound ≈ 0,453 Kilograms Live Cattle Price Per 1 … What stands out in Figure 1’s prices is the wide variation of prices around the red line. The next-to-the-bottom line covers Nebraska slaughter cattle basis. As we normally do, the February meeting started out studying market prices for the most current local weekly action market. I watch October futures for marketing weaned 2020 spring-born calves — again, looking more favorable than in 2019 as of mid-February. Informa Markets, a trading division of Informa PLC. Let’s look forward at feeder cattle prices. Selling weaned calves in October this year should be more favorable than selling them in October last year. New Cowboy documentary offers levity during a stressful November, An election in limbo: Here’s what we think we know, Fed Cattle Recap | Prices, cash volume head higher, Stress in agriculture — Checking in on my friends, Examining COVID-19’s effect on cattle markets, Allowed HTML tags: . Fassett Hay and Cattle 11-05-2020; England Showstock Elite November Edition Sale 11-5-2020; Steady Run Genetics Steer and Heifer Sale 11-5-2020; Top Hat Simmentals 11-05-2020; 7th Annual Friends in Low Places Elite Heifer Sale 11-3-2020; Ladies of Swan Creek 11-3-2020; Tuttle Cattle Co. Online Sale 11-3-2020 The downward sloping regression line shows the price drop as weights went up. In the last few months, he has spent considerable office time evaluating different marketing strategies for the next cycle. Iowa has been able move the market more than any region. I can use statistics to calculate the dollar impact for those different labels, and I did that for this week’s feeder steers. Editor’s note: Harlan Hughes wrote this article just as the cattle markets began to react to the spread of COVID-19. https://www.beefmagazine.com/sites/all/themes/penton_subtheme_beefmagazine/images/logos/footer.png. The silver lining of COVID-19 for beef producers. Higher Live Cattle prices tend to occur in the early months of the year, with a typical summer low. My local price forecasts are based on the Feeder Cattle futures as of mid-February. Informa PLC's registered office is 5 Howick Place, London SW1P 1WG. Reach him at 701-238-9607 or harlan.hughes@outlook.com. This site is operated by a business or businesses owned by Informa PLC and all copyright resides with them. I generate the chart in Figure 2 each month before I write my column. Packers took on large numbers of cattle in all regions confirming the thought they do … The bottom line pertains to grass cattle going on grass, coming off grass, and my calculated marketing loss per cwt on the original weight going on grass. I study the monthly changes and the yearly trend change, always looking at target months that my study herd manager might market feeders. The next-to-the-bottom line covers Nebraska slaughter cattle basis. Related: Examining COVID-19’s effect on cattle markets. Historically, Live Cattle reached an all time high of 171.98 in October of 2014. Live Cattle futures also suggest some insights in slaughter cattle prices down the road (Figure 3). Starting at a few sales at $103, prices moved to $107 yesterday. Note the top two-thirds of the table covers feeder cattle prices, and the rows beginning “Slaughter” and “Futures months” cover slaughter cattle prices. This included spending some travel time visiting custom feedlots trying to evaluate the potential for custom feeding some of his future calf crops. Lines and paragraphs break automatically. The differences between the gold and red bars in Figure 2 give a general direction of a year’s price changes over the last 30 days. Most spring-born calves tend to be finished in the next year’s summer months, generating the price lows. In general, fall 2020 prices are projected slightly higher than last fall as of mid-February, suggesting the beginning of the new beef price cycle. October 2020 cattle prices were at $107.00, up $3.72 from the month before and down $2.80 from the same time last year. First, slaughter cattle futures prices tend to follow a seasonal pattern triggered by the fact that most cows are calved in spring months. I have grass costs the same for both years. Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically. Note the top two-thirds of the table covers feeder cattle prices, and the rows beginning “Slaughter” and “Futures months” cover slaughter cattle prices. Suggested planning prices. Regardless of who owns them, when do your calves finish? Registered in England and Wales. During this last cycle, my study herd manager had a history of marketing his calves at fall weaning time. The first number is my projected price onto grass, and the second number is the projected price off grass. Get the latest Live Cattle price (LE) as well as the latest futures prices and other commodity market news at Nasdaq. I am projecting a much smaller price drop in 2020 between the price going on grass and the price coming off grass. The price trend for 2020 appears to be stronger than what we experienced in 2019. Thus, the data and projections do not reflect the volatility that has occurred in the futures markets and the drop in cash prices for calves, feeder cattle and fed cattle. I hope this holds! Yearlings off grass tend to finish shortly after the first of the year at a time of better slaughter prices. I watch September futures for marketing 2020 cattle off grass, and grass cattle were looking favorable in mid-February 2020. I decided to document the price premiums and discounts in his market for mid-February. Maybe early weaning into a feedlot is the answer? Both of these planning prices are suggesting the start of a new cattle price cycle. The distance of the dots from the line represents price premiums and price discounts. Figure 4 presents my mid-February 2020 suggested planning prices through fall weaning 2020. Those feeders labeled Unweaned by the market reporter sold for an average of $12.85 per cwt lower. There’s no doubt 2019 has been a challenging marketing year in what appears to be the last year of the last cattle cycle and its resulting price cycle. USDA publishes a weekly market summary for the local sale barn (Figure 1.) That average trend drop is $18.90 per cwt of added weight. Finishing in midsummer just tends to hit some lower prices. Yes, how feeders are marketed makes a big difference; and you, as a beef cow producer, have considerable control over how your feeders are marketed. ... For feeder cattle, Petry says futures prices are above last year. Second, Figure 3 suggests a slightly higher spring 2021 price peak over spring 2020 — an early suggestion of a start to the next beef price cycle. Beef Magazine is part of the Informa Markets Division of Informa PLC. The net result is that my current projection is a $100-plus net return from grass cattle in 2020. The line represents the drop in steer calf prices over the total weight range.